by Jeffrey C Kadlowec, Registered Architect Decision making throughout the project life cycle will have a significant impact on the final performance of a construction project. It is imperative that project managers be able to make informed decisions related to resources, schedules and alternatives. Uncertainty and a lack of information about the project present challenges that require probability-based assessments. The majority of these uncertainties occur in the planning stage before construction implementation. Accuracy in measuring construction performance has been shown to vary by 25–40% from fluctuations in project cost, duration and environmental impacts (Wang 2022). Probability-based methods provide ways of.